Market Share Distribution

#lidl’s highest ever market share, and #aldi losing share for the first time since March 2021, are the highlights from Worldpanel by Kantar's UK market data for 12 weeks ending 17th March released this morning. 12-wk sales grew by 4.2%, down from the last 12-wk period figure of 5.1% as 4-wk grocery #inflation fell from 5.3% to 4.5%, its lowest since February 2022.   Of the £1.355 Bn. sales growth year-on-year, 77% has been driven by just three retailers – #tesco (with sales up 5.8%), #sainsburys (up 6.7%), and Lidl (up 8.8%). All three retailers have increased their market share by 0.4% points year-on-year.   Aldi, with sales up just 3.1%, has seen their share fall by 0.1% point from 9.9% this period in 2023 to 9.8%. They have contributed just 7% of the market value growth, with sales up £97M year-on-year. Store numbers have grown from around 985 last year to 1015 now – around 3% - suggesting that like-for-like store sales are flat. Quite a few empty spaces on shelf have been seen recently. Their roll-out of a new SAP system worldwide may be proving a challenge from a stock availability perspective.   Total discounter share has nevertheless rebounded from 16.9% in the 12 weeks to 18th February to 17.6% this period. One reason is that Christmas sales were included in the last 12-wk period, and these have now dropped out of the latest period – discounter share always falls over Christmas. Furthermore, Lidl continue to grow ahead of the market, at +8.8%, giving them their highest ever market share of 7.8%.  Kantar state that their baked goods are up a huge 24% YoY. Their impressive in-store bakery will be helping this, and Lidl are promoting many in-store bakery products through the Lidl Plus app. Oh, and Aldi doesn’t have an in-store bakery… or app... #morrisons and #waitrose are enjoying an upward trend in sales growth. Although they still lag behind the total market, their growth rates are now ahead of Aldi’s for the first time since the pandemic. Waitrose and Ocado are the only grocers to boost their number of shoppers in the last 12 weeks, according to Kantar. In the last 4 weeks #branded sales growth (6.1%) is ahead of #privatelabel (4.7%) – a significant shift considering the strong gains made by private label over the last 2 years. The increasing use of promotions (many through loyalty apps) and some very strong instore merchandising of some brands will have fuelled this. Within private label, the premium tier is flying with sales up 16.1%. Premium tier features strongly in Meal Deals which have been heavily promoted leading up to Easter. Kantar has revealed that #easter treats are up by £88M compared with the same period in 2023, although a major factor behind this will be that Easter falls one week earlier this year. With two weeks to go from this latest data date to Easter Sunday, the next data set should reveal who the real winners are this Easter - a key trading period for retailers to retain customer loyalty.

This week’s Kantar data highlights clear winners and losers in the battle for UK grocery market share. Tesco continues its strong momentum from 2024, increasing market share by +0.7% and accounting for nearly 56% of total market growth, adding £556m—2.4 times the cash growth of Sainsbury’s. Lidl also impressed with +0.5% market share growth. Among other gainers: ✅ Sainsbury’s (+0.2%) ✅ Aldi (+0.1%) ✅ Lidl (+0.5%) ✅ Ocado (+0.2%) On the losing side: ❌ Asda (-1.0%) ❌ Morrisons (-0.2%) ❌ Co-op (-0.1%) ❌ Other Mults (-0.1%) ❌ Symbols & Indies (-0.1%) Kantar doesn’t report market share for M&S, but with +10.5% growth, they’re undoubtedly among the winners, likely surpassing Waitrose in share. The Evolving UK Grocery Market The UK grocery landscape continues to shift, with value-driven retailers gaining ground. Private Label (PL) is a key driver—now at its highest-ever share of 52.3%, growing +5.4% ahead of brands. Looking back, the transformation is striking. Iconic fascias like Safeway, Kwik Save, Somerfield, and Netto have disappeared. In 1999, the discount sector (Kwik Save, Aldi, and Lidl) held just 6.3% market share; today, Aldi and Lidl alone command 17.4%—with aggressive store expansion plans ahead. Online grocery, in its infancy in 1999, now accounts for ~15% of sales, but remains a heavily loss-making channel for most retailers. Market Shifts Over 25 Years Tesco has grown from 23.7% (1999) to 28.5% (2024)—peaking at 31.3% in 2007. With its recent performance, could it return to 30%+, or will Clubcard momentum fade? Several retailers have seen notable share declines over 25 years: 🔻 Iceland (-0.4%) 🔻 Asda (-0.6%) 🔻 Co-op (-1.0%) 🔻 Sainsbury’s (-2.3%) 🔻 Morrisons (-5.7%) (including Safeway’s share at the time of acquisition) Even since 2020, the market has seen major shifts: Six retailers have gained +5.6% share Five have lost -5.5% share Volume switching will be even higher than value changes especially on PL Asda & Morrisons alone have lost -4.1%, with high debt levels limiting their ability to invest in price and store standards—while competitors do the opposite. Private Label’s Growing Dominance PL’s rise continues: Jan 2021: 49.4% of value sales, 56.8% of volume Jan 2024: 51.3% of value sales, 59.1% of volume Challenges Ahead in 2025 Retailers face significant headwinds: ⚠️ National Living Wage (NLW) increases ⚠️ Employer National Insurance hikes ⚠️ Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) costs ⚠️ Potential business rate increases ⚠️ Supplier cost inflation driven by rising labour costs Those experiencing volume growth—whether in PL or branded—are better positioned to navigate these challenges than those losing ground. 💬 What are your thoughts? Will Tesco maintain momentum? Can Asda and Morrisons turn things around? How will the industry adapt to increasing cost pressures? Drop your insights in the comments!

📊 Market Share % in Nielsen – The Real Sales Scorecard! Let’s break it down with real-world numbers and fun analogies so even your chaiwala can understand it! ☕😆 🚀 What is Market Share %? Market Share (SOM - Share of Market) tells you how much of the total category sales your brand owns. It’s the best indicator of where you stand in the FMCG battlefield. 🛒 Formula: MS % = (Your brand sales)/(Total Category Sales) * 100 🔹 Why it matters? If your Market Share is growing, congratulations—you’re eating your competitor’s lunch! 🍽️ If it’s falling, they’re eating yours. 😭 🎭 Offtake % vs. Market Share % – What’s the Difference? Think of Market Share % vs. Offtake % like Bollywood actors and their box office success! 🎬 Metric - What it Means - Bollywood Example 🎥 Market Share % Total ₹ sales compared to the entire category Shah Rukh Khan’s total lifetime earnings from movies 💰 Offtake % Consumer pull (how much is actually selling per store) Audience demand for each SRK movie 🎟️ 👉 High Market Share but Low Offtake? You’re running massive distribution but struggling with consumer demand (think a big-budget flop film). 👉 Low Market Share but High Offtake? You’re in fewer stores, but people love your product (like a small indie film that becomes a cult hit!). 📈 How Market Share Correlates with Other Nielsen Metrics? 1️⃣ 📍 Weighted Distribution (WD) & Numeric Distribution (ND) High Market Share + Low WD → You’re winning despite limited reach! Time to expand! High WD + Low Market Share → Your product is everywhere, but no one’s buying. Maybe pricing, packaging, or visibility is off. 2️⃣ 📊 Offtake % & Stock Per Outlet (SPI) High Market Share + Low Offtake % → You’re selling due to bulk loading, not consumer love. Watch out! 📉 Low Market Share + High Offtake % → You’ve got strong demand. Time to scale! 🚀 3️⃣ 🎯 Promotion Dependency (Promo % of Sales) High Market Share but 50% of sales come from promotions? Your product might be surviving on discounts, not loyalty. Be careful! 📊 Example: Let’s Bring it to Life! Imagine you sell Protein Bars in the FMCG health snack category. Here’s how you compare: 📌 Category Sales: ₹100 Cr 📌 Your Brand Sales: ₹15 Cr 📌 Market Share % Calculation: 15% Now, Let’s Compare with Competitors Metric Brand CompetitorA CompetitorB Market Share % 15% 25% 10% Offtake % 10% 22% 8% WD % 75% 85% 55% ND % 50% 80% 45% SPI 18 units 12 units 20 units 🔍 What Do These Numbers Tell Us? ✔️ Competitor A is dominating (25% Market Share, 22% Offtake %). They are in more stores, and consumers love them! 🚀 ✔️ Your brand has decent Market Share (15%) but lower Offtake (10%), meaning you have presence but need to work on consumer pull. Maybe you need better branding or sampling? 🎯 ✔️ Competitor B has lower Market Share (10%) but also low Offtake (8%). They might be struggling with demand, or maybe they’re in the wrong type of stores. 🚀 Now tell me—what’s YOUR brand’s Market Share %? 😉

UNIVERSAL, SONY, WARNER CONTROL 70%+ OF THE GLOBAL MUSIC MARKET In 2024, the “Big Three” music conglomerates—Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment, and Warner Music Group—collectively held over 70% of global recorded music revenues. Their market shares break down roughly as follows: • Universal Music Group: 32% • Sony Music Entertainment: 21% • Warner Music Group: 18% These corporations dominate: • Master recording ownership (approximately 75% of commercially released catalogs) • Music publishing rights (over 60% of global songwriting catalogs) • Streaming distribution (controlling primary playlists on Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube) • Sync licensing for film, TV, and advertising (majority of high-value placements) Implications for artists and industry stakeholders: • Artist leverage: Negotiating power is limited; 360° deals and reduced royalty splits are common. • Independent opportunity: As major-label gatekeepers reinforce their hold, independent artists find premium value in direct-to-fan sales, NFT releases, and niche licensing. • Catalog value: With headline acquisitions (e.g., major catalog sales exceeding $1 billion in recent years), evergreen rights have become institutional-grade assets. This concentration reshapes how music is created, distributed, and monetized. Understanding the Big Three’s reach is critical for anyone engaging with today’s music economy. #MusicIndustry #MajorLabels #MusicMonopoly #ArtistOwnership #MusicPublishing #StreamingEconomics #CatalogAcquisition

Tango Data Dives: 2024 CRM Market Share As 2024 draws to a close, we analyzed data from 10k+ companies using Tango to create CRM documentation and walkthroughs. For market share, we isolated to the top 3 platforms. Here’s what we found: All Company Sizes: Salesforce: 58% HubSpot: 29% Dynamics: 13% Companies with 1,000+ Employees: Salesforce: 77% HubSpot: 6% Dynamics: 17% Companies with fewer than 1,000 Employees: Salesforce: 56% HubSpot: 33% Dynamics: 12% ------------------------- Salesforce still clearly dominates both large (77%) and small businesses (56%). Huge opportunity for HubSpot still ahead if you believe that they're the better platform shipping more features. Meanwhile, Dynamics doesn't crack 17% but maintains steady usage across segments, suggesting a steadfast following. For now, it seems likely that these top 3 continue to be the gatekeepers to the GTM stack. Not shown here, but occurring next in the data was Pipedrive, Zoho, & Monday. In 2025, it will be interesting to keep an eye on a few themes: Could there be more growth in the large business segment ahead for HubSpot? Does OpenAI + Teams fuel market share for Dynamics? Does Salesforce continue to prove to be untouchable? Dataset Notes The largest share of Tango’s user base is in the US, UK, and Australia Industries are broadly represented, with no pronounced bias. Because Tango is frequently used during software implementations, process improvements, M&A, and growth phases, there is likely a skew toward companies purchasing or expanding CRMs. #crm #crmadoption #salesforce #hubspot #dynamics

Sharing the latest Southeast Asia's e-commerce platform market share by GMV (updated with 2024 figures from Momentum Works) with commentary. Sea Limited's Shopee grew GMV +20.8% YoY, growing/maintaining market share across all six countries (46-65%), gaining 340bps to reach 51.8% market share in aggregate. TikTok Shops continued to grow GMV at the fastest rate, +35.2% YoY (off a smaller base), gaining 260bps market share to reach 15.4% market share in aggregate. Alibaba's Lazada grew GMV +2.6% YoY, continuing to lose market share in all countries except Malaysia, losing 140bps share to hit 15.1% market share in aggregate.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗕𝗗-𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗹𝗲𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 – 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟳 (𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 + 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲) A quick review – the NBD-Dirichlet model has two key parts: 1️⃣ The 𝗡𝗕𝗗 part that describes the average frequency of individual buyers and how those purchase frequencies are distributed across all category buyers. Essentially, what does the mix of heavy and light buyers looks like. 2️⃣ The 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗹𝗲𝘁 part that describes how individual buyers hold unique preferences for different category brands and how those brand preferences are distributed across all category buyers. The Dirichlet model gives you relative brand preferences across all buyers. This is what you would get if you did a "Brand Preference Survey" across your market. --- We might do a survey of brand preference and find: • Brand A ➜ preferred 40% of the time • Brand B ➜ preferred 37% • Brand C ➜ preferred 23% But if we look at actual relative market share based on total units purchased, we find: • Brand A ➜ 25% market share • Brand B ➜ 41% • Brand C ➜ 34% Buyer preference DOES NOT translate into overall market share ranking. This is illustrated in the graphic below 👇 --- 𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 ≠ 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲? Because different buyers have different purchase frequencies. Market share emerges from the combination of purchases made by both light and heavy buyers based on individual relative brand preferences. If heavy buyers prefer different brands than light buyers, then brand preference will not translate into total units sold. Example: the largest CRM customers (heavy buyers) disproportionately prefer Salesforce (80%+) over the average of all CRM buyers (~35%) As a result, Salesforce has: 👉 20x more revenue than Hubspot 👉 5x more market share 👉 But only ~150,000 accounts vs. Hubspot with ~216,000 accounts More heavy buyers (large enterprises with high seat counts) prefer Salesforce...while more light buyers (SMBs with small seat counts) prefer HubSpot. This is an example of why we need to look at BOTH purchase frequency (or size) PLUS brand preference to understand how relative 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 emerges! ✅ It's this combining of the two halves of the model (𝗡𝗕𝗗 + 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗹𝗲𝘁) that gives the model its power to describe actual market outcomes! --- A note on how this applies to B2B: The NBD-Dirichlet model tends to be talked about ONLY in the language of B2C CPG products (how often do people buy a box of laundry detergent) But heavy vs. light buyers equally applies to areas like B2B SaaS, where heavy vs. light describes things like average seat counts. --- Next, in 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟴, I examine the significant limitations and narrow contexts where you can apply the NBD-Dirichlet model. For example, it cannot tell you ANYTHING about "How Brands Grow" (in spite of books with such dubious titles)

🔍 Target’s Grocery Play: Can It Compete with Walmart, Amazon, and Kroger? The grocery sector is a $1.5 trillion battleground, and Target is making moves to strengthen its position. With new supply chain investments, digital growth, and a focus on omnichannel fulfillment, Target is positioning itself as a contender. But can it truly compete with Walmart, Amazon, and Kroger—the giants that dominate U.S. grocery? Here’s a deep dive into how Target stacks up against its rivals and what the future holds. 📦 Supply Chain: The Backbone of Grocery Success To stay competitive, Target has: ✅ Opened 3 new food-distribution centers (and another coming in Colorado) ✅ Invested in AI and automation to improve inventory flow ✅ Grown same-day services by 14% and digital grocery sales by 8.7% But how does this compare? 🔹 Walmart has converted its vast store network into fulfillment hubs, allowing 5 billion same-day deliveries last year—far surpassing Target. 🔹 Amazon continues to innovate with autonomous checkout and cashier-less stores, setting new standards for speed and convenience. 🔹 Kroger has doubled down on automated fulfillment centers and AI-driven logistics, helping drive 11% growth in digital grocery sales. 📊 Key Takeaway: Target is improving its supply chain, but competitors are operating on a larger scale with more advanced infrastructure. 📈 Market Share & Revenue Trends When it comes to market dominance, here’s how the past 24 months have played out: 🛒 Walmart: Grocery accounts for ~60% of its revenue, with total sales reaching $681B annually. Its market share jumped from 21.9% (2021) to 23.6% (2023). 🛒 Kroger: The #2 U.S. grocer, but losing share—down from 11.2% (2021) to 10.1% (2023). 🛒 Amazon: Online grocery sales hit $49.3B in 2023, growing 5.3% year-over-year. 🛒 Target: Food & beverage sales contribute about $6.5B per quarter, but it holds just 3-5% market share—well behind competitors. 📊 Key Takeaway: While Target’s grocery segment is growing, it remains a secondary business, whereas Walmart, Kroger, and Amazon see grocery as a core revenue driver. 💰 Profitability & Margins Grocery is a low-margin business, so efficiency is key. Here’s how operating profit margins stack up: 💵 Amazon: 8% (boosted by AWS & advertising) 💵 Target: 4.7% (down from 5.8%) 💵 Walmart: 3% (but growing due to operational efficiencies) 💵 Kroger: ~2% (high volume, low-margin model) 📊 Key Takeaway: Walmart and Kroger win on scale and cost-efficiency, while Amazon’s diversified business allows it to invest aggressively. Target’s margins have declined, making its grocery growth more challenging. 🏆 The Competitive Outlook: What’s Next for Target? 🚀 Strengths: ✔️ Well-established omnichannel strategy integrating digital & in-store ✔️ High customer brand loyalty in general merchandise ✔️ Continued expansion in fulfillment capabilities See additional commentary in replies below. Brittain Ladd - would love to hear your take

Distribution beats differentiation in consumer AI. The market leaders aren't the top models, They're the ones already in your pocket. ChatGPT: 28% - First-mover advantage paying off Google Gemini: 23% - Built-in distribution through Search and Gmail Meta: 18% - Likely driven by WhatsApp and Instagram integration Amazon Alexa: 18% - Voice assistant legacy holding strong Apple Siri: 16% - Default iOS presence keeping it relevant The remaining 33% is split among newer players like Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Microsoft Copilot. What this reveals about consumer behavior: - The top players all have massive built-in user bases. People use what's already in their pocket, browser, or smart speaker. - Consumers don't distinguish between AI types. They lump voice assistants, LLMs, and algorithmic recommendations into the same "AI" bucket. Siri and Alexa compete directly with ChatGPT in people's minds. - 91% of users default to general tools first Only switching when their go-to option fails at a specific task. While ChatGPT leads today, this market is far from locked up. 60% of users combine general and specialized AI tools, showing appetite for purpose-built solutions. Claude is winning in coding. Perplexity owns AI search. Specialized tools are carving out niches where they clearly outperform the defaults. The next wave won't compete on features alone. It'll be about embedding AI so seamlessly into existing workflows that switching becomes unnecessary. Who do you think will own the largest share of consumer AI in 2027? (Data from Menlo Ventures) #ArtificialIntelligence #TechStrategy #MarketShare #ConsumerTech #Innovation